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Copyright © 2007 New Jersey On-Line
LLC
HEADLINE: Negreanu on Poker: Dealing with an
image issue
By: Daniel Negreanu
Body:
I'm going to set up a No
Limit Hold'em tournament
scenario, and your job is to figure out the best play. After you've
made your guess, I'll reveal the answer along with the reasoning
behind it.
You're in a $10,000 buy-in World Poker Tour event; first prize
is over $1 million. Midway through the tournament, you're doing
very well with 146,000 in chips, which puts you among the chip
leaders. The blinds are at 400-800, there's a 100 ante, and you're
at a nine-handed table.
A player from middle position, with 44,000 in chips, raises to
2,200. Based on your knowledge of this opponent, you don't think
he has a very strong hand. The player next to him, with 38,000,
calls the raise.
You're on the button and are dealt Qc-3h. You've been at the
table with these players for several hours and have reraised only
once all day. When you did, you held the absolute nuts -- pocket
aces -- and you showed the table your hand.
So here's the question: What is the best
play
in this situation? Do you fold, call, raise 5,000 more, raise
10,000 more, or go all-in?
I hope none of you chose to call or go all-in.
Those two choices would be the absolute worst options. Q-3 is
a garbage hand and doesn't play
well after the flop. Calling with it is the worst play,
closely followed by going all-in.
So that leaves three legitimate options: fold, raise 5k more,
or raise 10k more.
The worst of those three plays
is to raise 5,000. The problem with this play is that if one of
your opponents has a hand like 7-7, he might call to see the flop;
you don't want that. Since you're on a complete bluff, you want
them all to fold immediately.
So it's either fold or raise 10,000 more. Folding is the safer
play,
but it's not the best option in this situation.
The best play
here is to go for the steal by making a large reraise of 10,000
more. Now, that may seem contrary to much of what I preach in
my weekly column, but this is a very specific situation where
you can use your table image to your advantage.
Okay, let's get back to the hand.
There's already 6,500 in the pot and based on your read of the
situation, it's likely that the first player has a marginal hand
and will fold. Since the second player just called the initial
raise, he probably doesn't have a hand strong enough to call your
raise either. If your read is correct, and because you've established
the right table image, your success rate with this play will be
very high.
Of course, the play tanks if one of the blinds picks up a big
hand, or one of the players already in the pot does call. But
in the long run, investing 12,200 to win 6,500 will turn you a
profit.
Here's another reason why this play works: As one of the chip
leaders, a 12,200 hit won't do too much damage to your stack.
Then again, you might ask yourself, "Why do I need 6,500
so badly if I already have close to 150,000 in chips?"
Well, one of the luxuries of having a big stack is that you can
play more aggressively and accumulate even more chips with little
risk. That's what winners do, and it's the mindset you'll need
if you ever fork over $10,000 to play in one of these tournaments.
Folding is the safe play, but keep in mind what Mike McDermott
said in "Rounders": "You can't lose what you don't
put in the middle. But you can't win much either."
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