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Copyright 2005 Full
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March 21, 2005
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Poker Lesson: A Way To Approximate
The Odds
Author: Clonie Gowen
It is very difficult to calculate the exact odds
of hitting a drawing hand when you're sitting at the poker table.
Unless you're a genius with a gift for mathematics like Chris
Ferguson, you will not be able to do it. That leaves two options
for the rest of us: The first option is to sit at home with a
calculator, figure out the odds for every possible combination
of draws, and then memorize them. That way, no matter what situation
comes up, you always know the odds. But for those of us without
a perfect memory, there's an easier way. Here is a simple trick
for estimating those odds.
The first thing you need to do is to figure out
how many "outs" you have. An "out" is any
card that gives you a made hand. To do this, simply count the
number of cards available that give the hand you are drawing to.
For example: suppose you hold Ac 8c and the flop comes Qh 9c 4c.
You have a flush draw. There are thirteen clubs in the deck and
you are looking at four of them -- the two in your hand, and the
two on the board. That leaves nine clubs left in the deck, and
two chances to hit one.
The trick to figuring out the approximate percentage
chance of hitting the flush is to multiply your outs times the
number of chances to hit it. In this case that would be nine outs
multiplied by two chances, or eighteen. Then take that number,
multiply times two, and add a percentage sign. The approximate
percentage of the time you will make the flush is 36%. (The exact
percentage is 34.97%.) Now let's say that on that same flop you
hold the Jd Th. In this case you would have an open ended straight
draw with eight outs to hit the straight (four kings and four
eights). Eight outs with two cards to come gives you sixteen outs.
Multiply times two and you will hit the straight approximately
32% (31.46% exactly) of the time.
One important thing to keep in mind is that the
percentage stated is merely the percentage of the time that you
will hit the hand you are drawing to, NOT the percentage of time
that you will win the pot. You may hit your hand and still lose.
In the first example, the Qc will pair the board and may give
somearticle a full house. In the second example both the Kc and
the 8c will put a possible flush on the board, giving you the
straight, but not necessarily the winning hand. Still, knowing
the approximate likelihood of making your hand is a good beginning
step on the road to better poker.
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