Copyright 2006 Full
Tilt Poker
November 13, 2006
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Poker Lessons)
Poker Lesson: How a Pro Thinks
Through a Poker Hand
Author: Team Full Tilt
A couple of weeks ago, Perry Friedman discussed
the importance of being able to look at factors beyond one's own
cards. An experienced player has the ability to think about what
his opponent is likely to hold. Beyond that, a top-quality player
- a pro - will think a level deeper and consider what he believes
his opponent is thinking about his cards.
This summer, at the World Series of Poker Main Event,
an interesting confrontation occurred between two Full Tilt Poker
pros and bracelet holders, Mark Vos and Chris Ferguson. With blinds
of 500 and 1,000, Chris raised on the button to 3,000. Mark re-raised
from the small blind and Chris called.
On a flop of A-J-T, Mark bet 12,000 and Chris called.
The turn brought another Jack and Vos bet 15K, and Chris called
again. The river was a 2. Mark checked and Chris moved in for
his last 20K. Mark thought for a time, then turned a Jack face-up,
showing trips, and folded.
Mark discussed his thinking shortly after the hand
was played.
I was in the small blind with King-Jack suited.
It was folded to Chris Ferguson who had about 70K to start
the hand. He raised it to 3,000. I decided I could probably
pick it up with a little re-raise, take him off of Ace-rag or
a small pair. He thought for a little bit and called. I put him
on a very strong hand here. He's not likely to defend his button
raise with a weak hand. I'd been playing pretty tight.
The flop came out A-J-T. I figured if he had a pair
of Queens or maybe a pair of Kings he might lay it down, and if
he had a small pair, like 9s or 8s, he'd definitely fold. So I
bet out 12K. He thought for a little bit and called. At this point,
my hand is totally dead; I'm hoping for a Queen.
The turn came a Jack , which is either a suck-out
or a trouble card. I have trips with the best kicker I can have
without having a full house. I didn't like the situation, but
I felt I had to lead out. Because he could have had A-K or A-Q,
or a flush draw. So I bet out 15K, which is pretty weak, because
it was about a 40K pot. He called fairly quickly. At that point,
my hand is dead. I was half hoping for a King on the river and
half not, because it could bust me.
The river was a blank. I checked. He went all in
for 20,000. I was fairly certain he had tens full or Aces full,
and I folded.
Chris later congratulated Mark on his good fold.
He confirmed that he had pocket Aces and had flopped a set and
turned a full house.
It takes time to learn to think this deeply about
a hand. But if you put in the time and have an open mind, you're
game will get increasingly sophisticated and your profits will
grow accordingly.
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