Copyright 2007 Full
Tilt Poker
December 5th 2007
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Poker Lessons)
Poker Lesson: Implied Odds - Part
2
Author: Andy Bloch
In my last tip, I discussed the basic principles
of implied odds.
As you'll recall, your implied odds
are the total amount you can win in a given pot, divided by the
number of chips you're putting into the pot. Put another way,
implied odds
calculate future action and betting that may occur in a hand,
while pot odds focus on the here and now of the hand.
Now that you have an understanding of the differences between
pot odds and implied odds, it's time to look at some of the more
advanced concepts involved with implied odds, along with some
common mistakes that many players make by misapplying these rules.
Estimating Implied Odds - One of the most common
errors that many players - both amateur and professional alike
- make is to overestimate their implied odds in a given hand.
For example, in season one of Poker After Dark, a certain well-known
pro called a very strong bet of mine on the turn with nothing
more than a gut-shot straight draw. He reasoned that I would never
put him on a straight if he hit his hand and that I would pay
him off on the river if he caught his four-outer.
While he may have been right, in theory, he still made a huge
mistake to call me in this hand because even if all of my chips
ended up in the center, he still wasn't getting the right odds
to call.
Let's look at the numbers to see what I mean. My opponent was
looking for four cards to make his hand on the river, which means
he only had about a 9 percent chance of hitting. This means he
needed implied of odds of at least 9-1 to justify his call, which
based on the size of my remaining chip stack, he wasn't even close
to getting.
Generally speaking, implied odds
aren't going to help you if you're looking for four or five outs
to make your hand. Ideally, you should have nine or more cards
that can make your hand before you start worrying about the implied
odds in a hand.
Miscalculating Implied Odds - One of the most
common mistakes I see is when players think they're getting implied
odds,
but really aren't. For example, let's say two players are involved
in a hand and one of them pushes all-in on the turn. The second
player in the hand is on either a flush or a straight draw, and
makes the call.
If the pot odds are correct here, it's a good call. However,
if the pot
odds are bad, so is the call because there aren't any more
chips going into the pot on the river, which means the implied
odds in this hand simply don't exist. By failing to make the distinction
between pot odds and implied odds, many inexperienced players
end up putting their chips at risk more often than they should.
Telegraphing Your Hand - There are many times
when players will properly calculate their implied odds in a hand
and make a good call only to find they can't get paid off when
they hit their hands. Why you ask? The answer is simple: they
telegraph their hand.
There's nothing wrong with taking your time when you're faced
with a big decision in a hand. Just remember though, the longer
you take to determine what you're going to do, the more information
you may be giving your opponent about your cards. Let's say you
took your time calling on the flop and then lead out after a flush
card comes on the turn. Chances are your opponent will drop his
hand assuming - probably rightly - that you just made your flush.
If your play in a hand looks obvious, it probably is, which means
the implied odds you thought you had after the flop probably never
even existed in the first place. In a practical sense, this means
that you should factor your opponent's style into your equation
when you're thinking about your implied odds in a hand. If he's
loose and a gambler, your odds are going to be better than if
he's tight and solid.
Protecting Your Hand - On the flip side of the
coin, you should learn to protect your big hands against opponents
who may be drawing against you. Limit your bets to about half
the size of the pot to make sure you're not giving them the right
odds to call. If they do call and a scare card hits the board,
you can still negate their implied odds by checking your hand
down or letting it go if your opponent leads out with a bet.
Beware of Negative Implied Odds - This is one
of the harder - and most important - concepts to grasp. Negative
implied odds mean that you need to be worried about hitting your
hand and still paying off an opponent who hit a better hand against
you. If you bet out after making your Jack-high flush and your
opponent raises behind you, you may have to pay him off even if
you think he's holding a better flush. One way to handle this
situation and to limit your potential losses is to think of the
total pot as being worth a little less than it actually is before
you consider making your call. If the odds don't add up, proceed
with caution.
Learning the nuances of implied odds takes time and practice,
but in the long run, mastering this part of the game is worth
the effort. Learn to start thinking about what may possibly happen
on later streets in a hand before you commit to any action early
on and you'll be well on your way to the next level.
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