Copyright 2007 Full
Tilt Poker
May 10th, 2007
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Poker Lessons)
Poker Lesson: Understanding Implied
Odds
Author: Rafe Furst
Most players know what pot odds and implied pot
odds (aka implied odds) are, and how to calculate them (estimate
pot odds). Just about every poker
book or website has a section on the topic. Still, I often
see people making mistakes in calculating implied odds - especially
when playing online. Too often, implied odds are invoked as a
reason for a play when "wishful thinking" would be the
more accurate description of the situation.
A perfect example came up in a recent tournament
on Full
Tilt Poker. The table was short-handed and playing rather
loose pre-flop, but tight after the flop. The blinds were getting
high, and a hand developed where we got to see a showdown between
a loose player who I'll call "Loosey" and a player I'll
call "Impy."
Impy had no pair and only an inside straight draw
on the flop, yet he called a pot-sized bet from Loosey. Impy hit
his straight on the turn, but was only able to extract a small
amount from his opponent and ended up checking down the river.
Impy's fuzzy logic on the flop was that, although he was behind,
if he hit his hand he'd get paid off at greater odds than it required
to chase his four-outer. As we saw in the hand, he got part of
what he wanted (the straight), but failed to extract enough from
his opponent to make his call on the flop reasonable. Furthermore,
Loosey was short-stacked, had top-pair with a weak kicker, and
was unlikely to have paid off much more than he did.
So, what can Impy do to improve his game? Here are
some guidelines for using implied odds to greater advantage:
Only Play Against Big Stacks
When two players are contesting a pot, their maximum implied odds
are exactly the same: the size of the shorter stack. If you and
your opponent both have large stacks relative to the blinds and
antes, your implied odds are much better than if one of you is
sitting on a smaller stack, simply because there are more chips
that can be committed to the pot during the hand. Players who
are short-stacked tend to play tighter and are less likely to
try to pick off a possible bluff because they don't have any extra
chips to spare, unlike a tall stack.
Don't Play Short-Handed
The more opponents there are at your table, the greater the likelihood
that one or more of them will pick up a good hand, be in on the
flop, and ultimately pay you off when you hit your draw. In short-handed
or heads-up situations, you have to get very lucky: first you
have to hit your hand, then you have to hope your opponent has
a good enough hand to pay you off. My advice is, unless you have
a really good read on your opponents in the hand, don't even consider
implied odds unless you are at a full 9- or 10-handed table.
Play Against Tight-Aggressive Players
Implied odds are greatest against tight-aggressive players. Why?
Because these are the players who are likely to have strong hands
after the flop, and are likely to commit a lot of chips to defend
their good hands. Tight-aggressive players are also going to be
involved in smaller pots on the flop, and will check-raise more
often than loose players when out of position. This gives you
free-card opportunities, which improve your implied odds. Psychologically,
once involved in a hand, tight players may have a harder time
letting go after the flop than loose players who are always in
action. Over time, those loose players are going to have a harder
time finding a reason to play with you after the flop.
The key to playing against tight-aggressive players
after the flop is to keep the pot as small as possible until you
hit your draw. If they put a lot of pressure on you, you're better
off folding your draw and waiting for a better situation. Not
every hand can be played profitably after the flop.
Incorporate Bluffs and Semi-Bluffs
If you are drawing on the flop, you should be betting and raising
instead of passively checking and calling to hit your hand. This
gives you two ways to win by:
1) Forcing your opponents to fold, or
2) Hitting your draw
This is called a semi-bluff. The only time you should
play passively is if you think a free card will help your situation
more than getting your opponent to fold.
Another thing to remember is that you are definitely
going to miss your draws more often than not. In these cases,
you should sometimes be bluffing, but the question is, how much
and how frequently?
Let's say the pot has $100 in it and you have $100
left, and you are deciding whether to bluff on the river. You're
giving your opponent 2-1 odds to call you, which is exactly how
often you should bluff in that situation (two times for every
one that you don't).
How do you choose the right balance between keeping
the pot small after the flop and playing aggressively as I am
advocating here? That's the art, and it requires lots of practice
and a good read on your opponents. You may want to pick up Sklansky's
Theory of Poker to learn more about optimal bluffing frequency
and semi-bluffs. By employing these techniques correctly, you
can vastly increase your implied odds and positive expectation.
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